(Revised Draft)

The 1999 Trustee Resolution on Access to the City University

of New York: Its Impact on Enrollment in Senior Colleges

April 1999

David Lavin and Elliot Weininger

Ph.D. Program in Sociology

Graduate School of the City University of New York

In 1998 the Board of Trustees of the City University of New York passed a historic resolution requiring that applicants pass all three CUNY skills assessment tests (in math, reading and writing),¹ in order to be admitted to a bachelor’s program. Various analyses have assessed the impact of the resolution on enrollments in the senior colleges. Estimates of effects vary, but all of them indicate that its implementation will sharply diminish enrollment in these institutions. For example, one assessment (Lavin and Weininger 1998) projected that enrollments in BA programs would have been reduced by 60 percent, had the new policy been in effect for the 1997 entrants. Another estimate by the University, using somewhat different assumptions, indicated that BA enrollments would decline by 46 percent (Arenson, 1998). Whatever the assumptions, it appears that the resolution will have a severe impact.

Of course, actual effects will not begin to be known until the year 2000, when the policy will start its initial phase-in.² One may expect that the new requirements will not exclude weaker students from bachelor’s programs in any simple, mechanical way. Weaker students, knowing they have little chance of admission, most likely will make other college choice decisions. Some may decide against applying at all and will take their chances in the labor market. Others may apply to four-year colleges outside of the CUNY system. Still others will hope to use community colleges as steppingstones to baccalaureate study.

In the interim, one may ask whether enrollments have been affected by the intense controversy that has swirled around the resolution, before and after it was initially passed in spring 1998. At first glance, CUNY data for fall 1998 suggest very little change, since overall enrollment is quite similar to the previous year, fall 1997 (for discussion of trends, see Arenson, 1999).

Overall Enrollment versus Freshman Enrollment.

However, a closer look indicates that total enrollment figures conceal far more than they reveal. This is apparent when one puts the spotlight on first-time freshmen, generally the most strategic group for assessing enrollment trends and access to higher education. Since a policy change that raises the admissions bar primarily affects incoming freshmen, the full effect of such a change on total enrollments can only become visible after it has had an opportunity to cumulate over successive incoming classes. Freshmen are thus an excellent group for gauging longer-term impact.

To clarify the enrollment question, we have looked at fall, first-time freshmen enrollments in senior colleges from 1992 through 1998. This examination suggests a far different and more ominous picture than the one represented by overall CUNY enrollment figures. Indeed, the focus on freshmen indicates that even before the phase-in of the new CUNY admissions resolution has started, a severe decline is occurring in senior college freshmen enrollments.

This can be seen in table 1, which shows fall enrollments for the seven colleges that exclusively provide bachelor’s programs. It identifies two years in which there is a sharp change relative to the previous fall. One is 1998 where the number of entering freshmen diminished notably from the number in 1997. The second instance is 1995, which registered a steep decline relative to 1994.

These sudden fall-offs are highlighted in table 2, which presents year-to-year percentage changes in freshman enrollment. It confirms that sharp decreases--on the order of 15 percent--occurred only in 1994/95 and 1997/98 comparisons. Moreover, these are the only two comparisons in which declines occurred for every senior college.

These contractions across all colleges imply that more is involved than idiosyncratic factors in the admissions process for each institution. We suspect that a broader process is at work. The institutional unanimity of the declines and their timing coincide not only with actual changes in fiscal and/or academic policy but also with the threat of such changes. For example, in fall 1995 a 31 percent tuition increase took effect in senior colleges--from $1,225 per term for first-time full-time freshmen in fall 1994 to $1,600 in fall 1995 (the increase in community colleges was smaller, from $1050 to $ 1250--a 19 percent increase). Additionally, in spring 1995 a trustee resolution was passed restricting the amount of time that senior college students could spend taking remedial courses. The resolution was to take effect beginning in fall 1996 (see Jones, 1995). Both policy changes--accompanied by a great deal of media attention--most likely discouraged many students from enrolling in CUNY senior colleges in fall 1995. Of course, we have no way of assessing the relative importance of the actual and impending changes on the freshman downturn.

With respect to our main focus, fall 1998 freshmen enrollments, the May 1998 resolution banning remedial students entirely from senior colleges was accompanied by a high level of negative publicity about remedial courses at CUNY senior colleges and by attacks in the tabloid media on "low standards" at the University. Such "CUNY bashing" may have discouraged many students from applying to CUNY senior colleges, even though the remedial resolution was not scheduled to go into effect until 1999.3 Especially among academically weaker students, perceptions that CUNY senior colleges were no longer open to them may have led many to apply instead to community colleges.

Two pieces of evidence are consistent with this speculation about the influence of "bad news" on student enrollments in fall 1998. First, at the same time that freshman classes were shrinking at the senior colleges, enrollments generally went up in community colleges and in comprehensive institutions that offer associate degree programs. Among the ten institutions offering associate programs, seven experienced enrollment increases in l998.4

A second point is that skills assessment test scores of senior college freshmen went up between 1997 and 1998 (see table 3), suggesting that self selection of weaker applicants out of senior colleges changed the student pool taking the tests. If many of the academically more vulnerable students left the senior college pool, this would have produced an increase in the percent passing all three tests.⁵ More research is needed to identify processes that influence year-to-year changes in test performance among freshmen applicants.

Whatever may be the sources of increased pass rates on skills tests, one must not lose sight of the fact that even with improved test performance taken into account, disturbingly high percentages of students will still be barred from admission to bachelor’s programs, if the new resolution is implemented. Overall, 44 percent of the 1998 freshmen would not have been admitted to a senior college. Even at the college with the highest 1998 pass rates on the CUNY test battery--Baruch--23 percent of freshmen would not have gotten through the door if the new requirements were in force. The same is true for 42 percent at Brooklyn, 67 percent at City College, 32 percent at Hunter, 73 percent at Lehman, and 40 percent at Queens College.

Ethnicity and Enrollments.

Ethnicity is another fundamental aspect of the enrollment issue. It is widely known that because pass rates on the CUNY skill tests vary considerably among different ethnic groups, negative effects on access to senior colleges are expected to be far more severe for minority students--blacks, Hispanics, and Asians--than for others (see, for example, Lavin and Weininger, 1998). Moreover, since the ethnic composition of freshman classes varies considerably from one senior college to another, enrollments in those schools with the highest proportions of minority students would be diminished the most. Indeed, the data suggest that over time, the survival of institutions with the highest minority enrollments may become problematic.

Of critical importance is that even with improved pass rates on skill tests for the 1998 freshman class, stark ethnic inequalities continue. Among the 1998 freshmen, more than half of minority students failed to pass all three assessment tests, compared with 30 percent of whites. Both minority and white students at every senior college would be affected. For example, as can be inferred from table 3, 64 percent of black freshmen at City College failed to pass all tests and thus would be barred if the new resolution were in effect. Similarly, 72 percent of Hispanic freshmen would have been excluded from Lehman, as would 65 percent of Asians at Queens, and 57 percent of blacks at York. Among whites, almost a third at Brooklyn College and close to 30 percent at Queens would be turned away.

Diminished access to senior colleges is even more disturbing when we take into account the fact that most minority graduates of these schools have taken remedial courses (Lavin and Weininger, 1998). The new resolution would have prevented these students from enrolling. As a result, it will severely diminish the number of minority students who earn bachelor’s degrees in New York City. By this criterion, the use of CUNY skill tests is psychometrically inadequate. Any admissions standard is suspect if it bars entry to a large number of students who would be successful.

Summary

Aggregate enrollment data seriously underestimate the longer-term declines in entry to CUNY. Although systematic research will be required to monitor and analyze the influence of trustee policy on access to the University, examination of first-time freshmen enrollments--the most sensitive indicator of trends, shows serious downturns in the number of students starting their college careers in baccalaureate programs. Strikingly, this is occurring even before the policy has been implemented. The estimated longer-term enrollment decline in BA programs has fundamental equity implications, since it is minority students who will be disproportionately barred from these programs. Because bachelor’s attainment is necessary for access to postgraduate study and for the better rewarded positions in the economy of the New York area, the long-term negative impact on economic life chances will fall most heavily on students of color. But even though effects are especially harsh for these students, whites will take a heavy hit as well.

NOTES

1. The resolution had initially been passed in May 1998. Litigation was initiated, asserting that this trustee meeting was in violation of the New York State open meetings law. The court upheld the complaint, and it was voted again in January 1999.

2. Effects will not be known even then, unless a detailed study is initiated in order to monitor changes in a variety of outcomes, such as changes in the rate of college-going in New York City high school classes, types of colleges attended (public vs. private, two-year vs. four-year, and the like).

3. Originally, the resolution was to be phased in beginning in fall 1999. After the court decision delaying the resolution, implementation is now set to begin in 2000.

4. The only dramatic exception to this pattern is Hostos Community College which in May and June of 1998 was a subject of intense media criticism over its bilingual programs and its standards for certifying English proficiency. In effect the CUNY bashing thesis fits the Hostos context.

5. Other interpretations of the increase are possible. For example, better preparation in high schools as a result of the CUNY College Preparatory initiative might contribute to improved skills test scores (although it is not clear that this could by itself explain such a large one-year spurt). Improvements in access to- and quality of summer immersion programs for students who did not pass all skills tests could also have made some contribution to increased proportions passing the tests in the 1998 freshman class. CUNY summer programs have been reported within the University to be highly successful. However, they have not been analyzed to rule out competing explanations for their alleged success. For example, it may be that among the students who take summer immersion programs, those who came very close to passing the skills tests, or who barely missed passing on only one test may be an overrepresented contingent in the population of students in immersion programs. In the absence of more meticulous research, those who tout the success of summer programs are not convincing.

REFERENCES

Arenson, Karen. 1998. "Report Says Entry Tests Would Sharply Cut CUNY Enrollment," The New York Times, May 20, 1998, p. B6.

_____________ 1999. "Leadership Void Hobbles CUNY as It Faces Severe Problems," The New York Times, March 24, 1999, p. B1.

Jones, Charisse. 1995. "CUNY Adopts Stricter Policy On Admissions," The New York Times, June 27, 1995, p. Al.

Lavin, David E., and Elliot Weininger. 1998. Proposed New Admissions Criteria at the City University of New York: Ethnic and Enrollment Consequences. Prepared for Hearings of the New York City Council, Committee on Higher Education, March 19, 1998.

 

Table 1. First-time Freshmen Enrollments in Senior Colleges,
Fall 1992 through Fall 1998*
	Fall 1992	Fall 1993	Fall 1994	Fall 1995	Fall 1996	Fall 1997	Fall 1998
Baruch	1,423	1,356	1,537	1,492	1,449	1,220	977
Brooklyn	1,440	1,367	1,392	1,276	1,311	1,428	1,113
City	1,160	1,269	1,243	939	824	1,023	938
Hunter	1,021	1,415	1,664	1,186	1,605	1,765	1,615
Lehman	809	768	745	585	678	798	628
Queens	1,648	1,749	1,824	1,655	1,183	1,309	1,265
York	742	706	692	542	577	518	415
TOTAL	8,243	8,630	9,097	7,675	7,627	8,061	6,951
*Source: CUNY Databook, various years. Enrollment not reported for "comprehensive" colleges containing
bachelor's and associate degree programs.

 

Table 2. Year-to-Year Percentage Changes in Enrollment of
First-time Freshmen in Senior Colleges, 1992 - 1998*
	92/93	93/94	94/95	95/96	96/97	97/98
Baruch	-4.7	13.3	-2.9	-2.9	-15.8	-19.9
Brooklyn	-5.1	1.8	-8.3	2.7	8.9	-22.1
City	9.4	-2.0	-24.5	-12.2	24.2	-8.3
Hunter	38.6	17.6	-28.7	35.3	10.0	-8.5
Lehman	-5.1	-3.0	-21.5	15.9	17.7	-21.3
Queens	6.1	4.3	-9.3	-28.5	10.7	-3.4
York	-5.9	-2.0	-21.7	6.5	-10.2	-19.9
TOTAL	4.7%	5.4%	-15.6%	-0.6%	5.7%	-13.8%
*Computed from Table 1.

 

Table 3. Percentage of First-time Freshmen Enrolled in Bachelor's Programs
Who Passed All Three Skills Assessment Tests: Fall 1997 and Fall 1998*
	Whites		Blacks		Hispanics		Asians		Total**
	Fall 1997	Fall 1998	Fall 1997	Fall 1998	Fall 1997	Fall 1998	Fall 1997	Fall 1998	Fall 1997	Fall 1998
Baruch	71.7	82.6	56.5	70.1	55.8	82.6	50.5	69.9	60.1	77.0
Brooklyn	59.6	67.3	39.9	49.1	45.1	49.6	31.2	40.4	55.3	58.5
City	54.8	52.3	34.4	35.7	21.8	26.6	31.0	33.8	37.1	33.1
Hunter	59.2	68.1	52.6	73.4	50.7	64.1	42.0	69.6	54.3	68.1
Lehman	37.3	29.5	32.3	29.3	19.5	27.7	11.4	15.4	26.4	27.4
Queens	51.6	71.3	44.8	67.8	43.1	58.4	33.7	34.8	46.8	60.2
York	40.7	27.8	32.0	42.7	19.2	44.9	14.1	28.0	25.1	39.1
TOTAL***	57.5	70.4	40.6	49.1	36.4	48.9	37.3	49.7	46.9	56.2
Source: City University of New York, courtesy University Faculty Senate	*Fall 1997 figures reflect highest scores as of 10/1/97; fall 1998 figures reflect highest scores as of 9/1/98	**Total includes students for whom race/ethnicity is unknown.	***Includes bachelor's entrants in other CUNY colleges.